Ohio delivered a decisive win for Donald Trump in 2024. But a new Fox News Poll suggests the political mood in the state has shifted enough to give Democrat Sherrod Brown a clear early advantage in the race for one of Ohio’s U.S. Senate seats.
The survey finds Brown leading Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted by 53% to 45%, an 8-point margin that falls outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. The result points to a race shaped by Democratic unity, Republican defections, voter frustration over inflation and a sharp decline in Trump’s standing among Ohio voters.
Husted currently holds the Senate seat after being appointed to replace JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Brown, meanwhile, is attempting a political comeback after losing his seat in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno. Reuters has also reported that Brown entered the 2026 race to try to reclaim the seat, while Husted was appointed after Vance left the Senate for the vice presidency.
The Senate Matchup
The poll gives Brown a stronger image than both Trump and Husted among Ohio voters.
Brown is viewed favorably by 53% of voters and unfavorably by 44%. Husted’s rating is weaker, with 41% favorable and 50% unfavorable. Trump’s numbers are also underwater, with 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable.
That marks a notable reversal from the 2024 Ohio Fox News Voter Analysis survey, when Trump held a +6 net positive rating in the state at 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable.
The shift matters because Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state. Trump carried it by more than 11 percentage points in 2024. Yet the new poll suggests that association with Trump may now be creating political drag for Husted rather than helping him consolidate support.
Brown’s lead is built partly on near-total Democratic support.
The poll shows Brown receiving 98% support from Democrats, while Husted receives 86% support from Republicans. That difference matters in a state where Republicans usually begin with structural advantages.
Brown is also pulling support from outside the Democratic base. He receives backing from 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of all Republicans. By contrast, only 2% of Democrats support Husted.
That crossover support gives Brown a broader coalition at this stage of the race. It also suggests Husted has work to do among Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA wing of the party.
Where Each Candidate Is Strongest
The poll shows Husted performing best with groups that have remained central to Republican strength in Ohio.
He leads among White evangelical Christians by 32 points, rural voters by 11 points, and White men without a college degree by 7 points.
Brown’s advantage comes from different parts of the electorate. He leads among voters under 35 by 33 points, independents by 18 points, and women by 14 points.
The racial divide is also significant. Non-white voters back Brown by 58 points, while White voters are split evenly at 49% for each candidate. Brown also leads by 23 points among voters under 45, while the candidates are nearly tied among voters 45 and older.
Inflation Dominates the Race
No issue comes close to inflation in the minds of Ohio voters.
The poll finds 43% naming inflation as the most important issue in their Senate vote. Healthcare follows at 12%, immigration and border security at 11%, political divisions at 9%, jobs at 8%, Iran at 7%, and abortion and crime at 4% each.
Inflation cuts across partisan lines. It is the top issue among independents, Democrats, Republicans, MAGA voters and 2024 Trump voters.
That creates a major opening for Brown. Voters who prioritize inflation favor him by 14 points. Healthcare voters favor him by 44 points. Husted dominates among voters focused on immigration and border security, leading that group by 76 points.
The poll also shows broader financial anxiety. Thirty-nine percent of Ohio voters say their family is falling behind financially, up from 32% in the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis survey. Meanwhile, 49% say they are holding steady, down 9 points.
Trump’s Role in the Race
The poll suggests Trump’s influence may now be more complicated in Ohio than it was in 2024.
In a state he won with 55% of the vote, voters are now more worried that Husted is too close to Trump than they are that Brown is too liberal. The survey finds 46% concerned that Husted is “too close” to Trump, including 10% of his own supporters.
By comparison, 39% say Brown is “too liberal,” including 13% of Brown’s supporters.
That finding cuts directly into the Republican strategy. In many red-leaning states, Democrats face pressure over ideological labels. But in this poll, Husted’s Trump connection appears to be the larger vulnerability.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, said Democrats have reason to feel optimistic.
“There’s good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio,” Shaw said. “The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown.”
The same poll shows a much tighter race for Ohio governor.
Democrat Amy Acton receives 50%, while Republican Vivek Ramaswamy receives 49%. The result suggests a nearly even contest at this stage.
Acton wins 93% of Democrats, while Ramaswamy wins 89% of Republicans. Independents back Acton by 8 points, 51% to 43%.
There is also some ticket-splitting. The poll finds 14% of voters who prefer Brown in the Senate race crossing party lines to support Ramaswamy for governor.
Both gubernatorial candidates have relatively firm support, with about 7 in 10 supporters of each saying they are certain of their choice.
AI Data Centers Face Broad Opposition
The survey also tested voter attitudes toward AI data centers.
Ohio voters oppose having an AI data center built in their area by more than 2-to-1, with 65% opposed and 32% in favor.
That opposition crosses party lines. Majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans all oppose local AI data center construction.
The finding suggests that while artificial intelligence may be a national economic and technological priority, local concerns about infrastructure, community impact or development are already politically powerful in Ohio.
The Fox News Poll was conducted from May 28 to June 1, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research.
The survey included 1,015 Ohio registered voters selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents were interviewed by live callers on landlines and cellphones or completed the survey online after receiving a text message.
The full sample has a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Subgroup results carry larger sampling error.
The Ohio Senate race is still months from Election Day, but the latest Fox News Poll shows why Democrats see an opening.
Sherrod Brown is benefiting from near-total Democratic unity, support from independents and measurable Republican crossover backing. Jon Husted, meanwhile, faces the challenge of running in a Republican-leaning state where Trump’s image has weakened and voters are increasingly worried about inflation.
Ohio remains difficult territory for Democrats. But this poll shows a contest that is no longer defined only by the state’s red lean. It is being shaped by economic pressure, candidate image, party loyalty and whether Trump’s political shadow helps or hurts Republicans in 2026.
